EXCLUSIVE: Survey commissioned by Electoral Calculus also found anti-Reform sentiment had grown over the last 12 months – as the right-wing party faces scandals on multiple fronts
The survey commissioned by Electoral Calculus found anti-Reform sentiment had grown over the last 12 months(Image: Getty Images)
Nigel Farage could miss out on dozens of seats across the country at the next general election due to anti-Reform tactical voting, according to new research.
The survey commissioned by Electoral Calculus also found anti-Reform sentiment had grown over the last 12 months – as the right-wing party faces scandals on multiple fronts.
It found 50% of Labour supporters in areas facing a two-way battle between Tories and Reform would be willing to hold their nose to vote Conservative and keep Mr Farage’s candidates out of power.
This is an increase of 12% since 2025 when Electoral Calculus last asked voters their intentions.
Researchers also found almost all Green voters would lend their support to Labour to defeat Reform if their constituency was a two-horse fight. But fewer than half of Reform supporters would vote Tory in an attempt to inflict defeat on Labour.
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: “As Labour under Burnham rebuilds its base, left-of-centre voters are surprisingly willing to lend their votes to whomever can stop Reform, even if that means Labour supporters voting Conservative.
“Anti-reform tactical voting has grown over the past year and could cost Reform dozens of seats because the right is divided.”
The findings are based on a survey of over 10,000 voters from pollsters Find Out Now and show Reform could secure 127 seats at the next election on 22% of the vote share.
But with tactical voting, the number of seats Reform could win may fall by 44 to just 83.
Meanwhile Andy Burnham’s Labour would win an extra 35 seats under tactical voting with 287 in total – but still short of the 326 seats needed to form a majority in the House of Commons.
The research also contains a warning for Mr Burnham, who promised at last month’s Labour conference to fight the next general election on a pledge to change the UK’s voting system.
Before becoming Prime Minister he supported moves towards a proportional representation (PR) model.
But Electoral Calculus found PR would not benefit Labour under the current circumstances, with the party dropping to 23% in the polls to tie with Reform for the top spot.
The research adds: “We see that Labour performs best under FPTP [first-past-the-post] with tactical voting at 27pc, keeping a lead over Reform on 22% and the Conservatives on 19%.
“Under this system, tactical voting pushes both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens below 10%, while Restore sits on 8%.”
Mr Baxter added: “Interestingly, the first-past-the-post system, plus tactical voting, helps left-of-centre parties much more than proportional representation, which could put Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe into Downing Street.”
Tyron Surmon, Head of Research of Find Out Now, said: “At the peak of Reform’s polling last summer, there was deep concern that despite only having a third of the vote, this would be enough for them to get a majority in Parliament.
“While this reawakened interest in changing the electoral system, our polling shows that such proposals are a double-edged sword. Thanks to a right-wing split between Reform and the Conservatives, and anti-Reform tactical voting, it may actually be Labour who benefits most from our current system. And any move away from it could be to their peril.”
